Rothenberg: 9 Republicans Among 10 Most Endangered House Members
Stuart Rothenberg, a reliably right-leaning national elections analyst, uses his column this week in Roll Call (subscription only) to list his picks for the ten most endangered U.S. House members of the 2006 cycle. It says volumes about the current political landscape and the way it is shaping up disastrously for the national GOP that 9 of Rothenberg's 10 most vulnerable are Republicans.
Rothenberg's Top Ten are listed below, ordered by his assessment of most endangered. (Commentary following each entry is mine.)
Bob Ney (R-OH) - Most demonstrably corrupt though not-yet-indicted Member of Congress ranks most endangered for Rothenberg.
Tom DeLay (R-TX) - Most demonstrably corrupt already-indicted Member ranks a close second to Ney.
John Hostettler (R-IN) - Hostettler tried carrying a pistol onto a US Airways flight in 2004. Had he been a Democrat or a Mid-Easterner he'd be in Gitmo right now; as it is he may be right behind DeLay on the next flight home.
Jim Gerlach (R-PA) - Barely held his seat in '04, spends most of his votes pretending he's not a lockstep Bush-follower.
Rob Simmons (R-CT) - Oldline, socially moderate Connecticut Republicans don't have much left in common with today's Southern, extremist GOP theocracy. Simmons continues to pretend there's a place for moderates in the party.
Heather Wilson (R-NM) - Popular New Mexico AG Pat Madrid is in, making another close re-elect tough for Wilson.
Chris Shays (R-CT) - Ditto Rob Simmons.
Mike Sodrel (R-IN) - Faces Baron Hill again. Hill (D) has already beaten Sodrel once in a much, much tougher climate for Dems.
Clay Shaw (R-FL) - Shaw may regret his shilling for the President's Social Security privatization plan from his perch on the Committee which oversees the popular program, particularly in a state with a heavy senior population.
Melissa Bean (D-IL) - Says alot that the only Dem on Rothenberg's list is, in his assessment, also the least vulnerable of the lot.
Rothenberg's prognosis is yet another indicator of a tremendously difficult midterm election upcoming for the GOP nationwide.