I Think Rove's Days Are Numbered

Last week, Washington, DC was abuzz with discussions about Karl Rove's future. 

Jim VandeHei's front page WaPo story really kicked things into gear.  And now, Time speculates on the same subject.

I say that Karl is not long for BushWorld and let me show you a passage from the WaPo story to help explain why:

Rove has long been regarded as the most influential and feared Bush aide and has enjoyed the fervent backing of the president and influential conservatives. Republicans with firsthand knowledge of the private talks about Rove's political problems said there have been informal discussions involving people inside and outside the White House, and that they reflected the views of a large number of administration officials who are concerned about Bush's efforts to start anew in 2006 with as little interference from the scandal as possible.

Note the casualness with which the phrase "Rove's political problems" is tossed out in the story.

George Bush and I don't agree on very much, but I would bet $100 that he and I agree on this one thing.  There is no such thing as a "Rove political problem."  Karl Rove is an operative, and operatives don't have political problems, they become political problems, and when they do, they graciously ride off into the sunset.

I feel quite certain that Bush has always chafed under the media's characterization's of Rove as Bush's Brain, and the man who made Bush.  Bush may try to come off as a friendly enough guy, but he is not without ego.  Plus, he's been around this business a long time, he knows that aides come and go, and he probably doesn't think any of them are indispensible, not even Karl Rove.

Plus, Bush no doubt believes that the glory that goes to aides is, and should always be reflected glory.  The candidate is the one who sticks their neck out, and the operatives should be careful about taking too much credit.  Their job, after all, is to make the candidate look good, and to take the blame when things don't go well.  Bush should not be expected to tolerate taking hits for Karl's bad judgement, especially since Bush has had to listen to the pundits for five years saying that Karl's the only one in the West Wing who has any.

Bush may have been willing to tolerate Rove's relentless self promotion when things were going well, but when they stop going well, I suspect that Bush's tolerance for it will ebb swiftly. 

Sadly, when Karl leaves, it won't be because Bush is offended because Karl ran a dirty tricks operation out of the West Wing, or because Bush is unwilling to tolerate someone who would risk the nation's security by cavalierly tossing around classified information.  It will be because the President's ego is bruised.  But once that bruise gets too large, Karl will be headed back to Texas.